Classification
Chapter 3
Run in Google ColabFirst, let's import a few common modules, ensure MatplotLib plots figures inline and prepare a function to save the figures. We also check that Python 3.5 or later is installed (although Python 2.x may work, it is deprecated so we strongly recommend you use Python 3 instead), as well as Scikit-Learn ≥0.20.
# Python ≥3.5 is required
import sys
assert sys.version_info >= (3, 5)
# Scikit-Learn ≥0.20 is required
import sklearn
assert sklearn.__version__ >= "0.20"
# Common imports
import numpy as np
import os
# to make this notebook's output stable across runs
np.random.seed(42)
# To plot pretty figures
%matplotlib inline
import matplotlib as mpl
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
mpl.rc('axes', labelsize=14)
mpl.rc('xtick', labelsize=12)
mpl.rc('ytick', labelsize=12)
# Where to save the figures
PROJECT_ROOT_DIR = "."
CHAPTER_ID = "classification"
IMAGES_PATH = os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT_DIR, "images", CHAPTER_ID)
os.makedirs(IMAGES_PATH, exist_ok=True)
def save_fig(fig_id, tight_layout=True, fig_extension="png", resolution=300):
path = os.path.join(IMAGES_PATH, fig_id + "." + fig_extension)
print("Saving figure", fig_id)
if tight_layout:
plt.tight_layout()
plt.savefig(path, format=fig_extension, dpi=resolution)
from sklearn.datasets import fetch_openml
mnist = fetch_openml('mnist_784', version=1)
mnist.keys()
X, y = mnist["data"], mnist["target"]
X.shape
y.shape
28 * 28
%matplotlib inline
import matplotlib as mpl
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
some_digit = X[0]
some_digit_image = some_digit.reshape(28, 28)
plt.imshow(some_digit_image, cmap=mpl.cm.binary)
plt.axis("off")
save_fig("some_digit_plot")
plt.show()
y[0]
y = y.astype(np.uint8)
def plot_digit(data):
image = data.reshape(28, 28)
plt.imshow(image, cmap = mpl.cm.binary,
interpolation="nearest")
plt.axis("off")
# EXTRA
def plot_digits(instances, images_per_row=10, **options):
size = 28
images_per_row = min(len(instances), images_per_row)
images = [instance.reshape(size,size) for instance in instances]
n_rows = (len(instances) - 1) // images_per_row + 1
row_images = []
n_empty = n_rows * images_per_row - len(instances)
images.append(np.zeros((size, size * n_empty)))
for row in range(n_rows):
rimages = images[row * images_per_row : (row + 1) * images_per_row]
row_images.append(np.concatenate(rimages, axis=1))
image = np.concatenate(row_images, axis=0)
plt.imshow(image, cmap = mpl.cm.binary, **options)
plt.axis("off")
plt.figure(figsize=(9,9))
example_images = X[:100]
plot_digits(example_images, images_per_row=10)
save_fig("more_digits_plot")
plt.show()
y[0]
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = X[:60000], X[60000:], y[:60000], y[60000:]
y_train_5 = (y_train == 5)
y_test_5 = (y_test == 5)
Note: some hyperparameters will have a different defaut value in future versions of Scikit-Learn, such as max_iter and tol. To be future-proof, we explicitly set these hyperparameters to their future default values. For simplicity, this is not shown in the book.
from sklearn.linear_model import SGDClassifier
sgd_clf = SGDClassifier(max_iter=1000, tol=1e-3, random_state=42)
sgd_clf.fit(X_train, y_train_5)
sgd_clf.predict([some_digit])
from sklearn.model_selection import cross_val_score
cross_val_score(sgd_clf, X_train, y_train_5, cv=3, scoring="accuracy")
from sklearn.model_selection import StratifiedKFold
from sklearn.base import clone
skfolds = StratifiedKFold(n_splits=3, random_state=42)
for train_index, test_index in skfolds.split(X_train, y_train_5):
clone_clf = clone(sgd_clf)
X_train_folds = X_train[train_index]
y_train_folds = y_train_5[train_index]
X_test_fold = X_train[test_index]
y_test_fold = y_train_5[test_index]
clone_clf.fit(X_train_folds, y_train_folds)
y_pred = clone_clf.predict(X_test_fold)
n_correct = sum(y_pred == y_test_fold)
print(n_correct / len(y_pred))
from sklearn.base import BaseEstimator
class Never5Classifier(BaseEstimator):
def fit(self, X, y=None):
pass
def predict(self, X):
return np.zeros((len(X), 1), dtype=bool)
never_5_clf = Never5Classifier()
cross_val_score(never_5_clf, X_train, y_train_5, cv=3, scoring="accuracy")
from sklearn.model_selection import cross_val_predict
y_train_pred = cross_val_predict(sgd_clf, X_train, y_train_5, cv=3)
from sklearn.metrics import confusion_matrix
confusion_matrix(y_train_5, y_train_pred)
y_train_perfect_predictions = y_train_5 # pretend we reached perfection
confusion_matrix(y_train_5, y_train_perfect_predictions)
from sklearn.metrics import precision_score, recall_score
precision_score(y_train_5, y_train_pred)
4096 / (4096 + 1522)
recall_score(y_train_5, y_train_pred)
4096 / (4096 + 1325)
from sklearn.metrics import f1_score
f1_score(y_train_5, y_train_pred)
4096 / (4096 + (1522 + 1325) / 2)
y_scores = sgd_clf.decision_function([some_digit])
y_scores
threshold = 0
y_some_digit_pred = (y_scores > threshold)
y_some_digit_pred
threshold = 8000
y_some_digit_pred = (y_scores > threshold)
y_some_digit_pred
y_scores = cross_val_predict(sgd_clf, X_train, y_train_5, cv=3,
method="decision_function")
from sklearn.metrics import precision_recall_curve
precisions, recalls, thresholds = precision_recall_curve(y_train_5, y_scores)
def plot_precision_recall_vs_threshold(precisions, recalls, thresholds):
plt.plot(thresholds, precisions[:-1], "b--", label="Precision", linewidth=2)
plt.plot(thresholds, recalls[:-1], "g-", label="Recall", linewidth=2)
plt.legend(loc="center right", fontsize=16) # Not shown in the book
plt.xlabel("Threshold", fontsize=16) # Not shown
plt.grid(True) # Not shown
plt.axis([-50000, 50000, 0, 1]) # Not shown
recall_90_precision = recalls[np.argmax(precisions >= 0.90)]
threshold_90_precision = thresholds[np.argmax(precisions >= 0.90)]
plt.figure(figsize=(8, 4)) # Not shown
plot_precision_recall_vs_threshold(precisions, recalls, thresholds)
plt.plot([threshold_90_precision, threshold_90_precision], [0., 0.9], "r:") # Not shown
plt.plot([-50000, threshold_90_precision], [0.9, 0.9], "r:") # Not shown
plt.plot([-50000, threshold_90_precision], [recall_90_precision, recall_90_precision], "r:")# Not shown
plt.plot([threshold_90_precision], [0.9], "ro") # Not shown
plt.plot([threshold_90_precision], [recall_90_precision], "ro") # Not shown
save_fig("precision_recall_vs_threshold_plot") # Not shown
plt.show()
(y_train_pred == (y_scores > 0)).all()
def plot_precision_vs_recall(precisions, recalls):
plt.plot(recalls, precisions, "b-", linewidth=2)
plt.xlabel("Recall", fontsize=16)
plt.ylabel("Precision", fontsize=16)
plt.axis([0, 1, 0, 1])
plt.grid(True)
plt.figure(figsize=(8, 6))
plot_precision_vs_recall(precisions, recalls)
plt.plot([0.4368, 0.4368], [0., 0.9], "r:")
plt.plot([0.0, 0.4368], [0.9, 0.9], "r:")
plt.plot([0.4368], [0.9], "ro")
save_fig("precision_vs_recall_plot")
plt.show()
threshold_90_precision = thresholds[np.argmax(precisions >= 0.90)]
threshold_90_precision
y_train_pred_90 = (y_scores >= threshold_90_precision)
precision_score(y_train_5, y_train_pred_90)
recall_score(y_train_5, y_train_pred_90)
from sklearn.metrics import roc_curve
fpr, tpr, thresholds = roc_curve(y_train_5, y_scores)
def plot_roc_curve(fpr, tpr, label=None):
plt.plot(fpr, tpr, linewidth=2, label=label)
plt.plot([0, 1], [0, 1], 'k--') # dashed diagonal
plt.axis([0, 1, 0, 1]) # Not shown in the book
plt.xlabel('False Positive Rate (Fall-Out)', fontsize=16) # Not shown
plt.ylabel('True Positive Rate (Recall)', fontsize=16) # Not shown
plt.grid(True) # Not shown
plt.figure(figsize=(8, 6)) # Not shown
plot_roc_curve(fpr, tpr)
plt.plot([4.837e-3, 4.837e-3], [0., 0.4368], "r:") # Not shown
plt.plot([0.0, 4.837e-3], [0.4368, 0.4368], "r:") # Not shown
plt.plot([4.837e-3], [0.4368], "ro") # Not shown
save_fig("roc_curve_plot") # Not shown
plt.show()
from sklearn.metrics import roc_auc_score
roc_auc_score(y_train_5, y_scores)
Note: we set n_estimators=100 to be future-proof since this will be the default value in Scikit-Learn 0.22.
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier
forest_clf = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=100, random_state=42)
y_probas_forest = cross_val_predict(forest_clf, X_train, y_train_5, cv=3,
method="predict_proba")
y_scores_forest = y_probas_forest[:, 1] # score = proba of positive class
fpr_forest, tpr_forest, thresholds_forest = roc_curve(y_train_5,y_scores_forest)
plt.figure(figsize=(8, 6))
plt.plot(fpr, tpr, "b:", linewidth=2, label="SGD")
plot_roc_curve(fpr_forest, tpr_forest, "Random Forest")
plt.plot([4.837e-3, 4.837e-3], [0., 0.4368], "r:")
plt.plot([0.0, 4.837e-3], [0.4368, 0.4368], "r:")
plt.plot([4.837e-3], [0.4368], "ro")
plt.plot([4.837e-3, 4.837e-3], [0., 0.9487], "r:")
plt.plot([4.837e-3], [0.9487], "ro")
plt.grid(True)
plt.legend(loc="lower right", fontsize=16)
save_fig("roc_curve_comparison_plot")
plt.show()
roc_auc_score(y_train_5, y_scores_forest)
y_train_pred_forest = cross_val_predict(forest_clf, X_train, y_train_5, cv=3)
precision_score(y_train_5, y_train_pred_forest)
recall_score(y_train_5, y_train_pred_forest)
from sklearn.svm import SVC
svm_clf = SVC(gamma="auto", random_state=42)
svm_clf.fit(X_train[:1000], y_train[:1000]) # y_train, not y_train_5
svm_clf.predict([some_digit])
some_digit_scores = svm_clf.decision_function([some_digit])
some_digit_scores
np.argmax(some_digit_scores)
svm_clf.classes_
svm_clf.classes_[5]
from sklearn.multiclass import OneVsRestClassifier
ovr_clf = OneVsRestClassifier(SVC(gamma="auto", random_state=42))
ovr_clf.fit(X_train[:1000], y_train[:1000])
ovr_clf.predict([some_digit])
len(ovr_clf.estimators_)
sgd_clf.fit(X_train, y_train)
sgd_clf.predict([some_digit])
sgd_clf.decision_function([some_digit])
cross_val_score(sgd_clf, X_train, y_train, cv=3, scoring="accuracy")
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
scaler = StandardScaler()
X_train_scaled = scaler.fit_transform(X_train.astype(np.float64))
cross_val_score(sgd_clf, X_train_scaled, y_train, cv=3, scoring="accuracy")
y_train_pred = cross_val_predict(sgd_clf, X_train_scaled, y_train, cv=3)
conf_mx = confusion_matrix(y_train, y_train_pred)
conf_mx
def plot_confusion_matrix(matrix):
"""If you prefer color and a colorbar"""
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(8,8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
cax = ax.matshow(matrix)
fig.colorbar(cax)
plt.matshow(conf_mx, cmap=plt.cm.gray)
save_fig("confusion_matrix_plot", tight_layout=False)
plt.show()
row_sums = conf_mx.sum(axis=1, keepdims=True)
norm_conf_mx = conf_mx / row_sums
np.fill_diagonal(norm_conf_mx, 0)
plt.matshow(norm_conf_mx, cmap=plt.cm.gray)
save_fig("confusion_matrix_errors_plot", tight_layout=False)
plt.show()
cl_a, cl_b = 3, 5
X_aa = X_train[(y_train == cl_a) & (y_train_pred == cl_a)]
X_ab = X_train[(y_train == cl_a) & (y_train_pred == cl_b)]
X_ba = X_train[(y_train == cl_b) & (y_train_pred == cl_a)]
X_bb = X_train[(y_train == cl_b) & (y_train_pred == cl_b)]
plt.figure(figsize=(8,8))
plt.subplot(221); plot_digits(X_aa[:25], images_per_row=5)
plt.subplot(222); plot_digits(X_ab[:25], images_per_row=5)
plt.subplot(223); plot_digits(X_ba[:25], images_per_row=5)
plt.subplot(224); plot_digits(X_bb[:25], images_per_row=5)
save_fig("error_analysis_digits_plot")
plt.show()
from sklearn.neighbors import KNeighborsClassifier
y_train_large = (y_train >= 7)
y_train_odd = (y_train % 2 == 1)
y_multilabel = np.c_[y_train_large, y_train_odd]
knn_clf = KNeighborsClassifier()
knn_clf.fit(X_train, y_multilabel)
knn_clf.predict([some_digit])
Warning: the following cell may take a very long time (possibly hours depending on your hardware).
y_train_knn_pred = cross_val_predict(knn_clf, X_train, y_multilabel, cv=3)
f1_score(y_multilabel, y_train_knn_pred, average="macro")
noise = np.random.randint(0, 100, (len(X_train), 784))
X_train_mod = X_train + noise
noise = np.random.randint(0, 100, (len(X_test), 784))
X_test_mod = X_test + noise
y_train_mod = X_train
y_test_mod = X_test
some_index = 0
plt.subplot(121); plot_digit(X_test_mod[some_index])
plt.subplot(122); plot_digit(y_test_mod[some_index])
save_fig("noisy_digit_example_plot")
plt.show()
knn_clf.fit(X_train_mod, y_train_mod)
clean_digit = knn_clf.predict([X_test_mod[some_index]])
plot_digit(clean_digit)
save_fig("cleaned_digit_example_plot")
from sklearn.dummy import DummyClassifier
dmy_clf = DummyClassifier()
y_probas_dmy = cross_val_predict(dmy_clf, X_train, y_train_5, cv=3, method="predict_proba")
y_scores_dmy = y_probas_dmy[:, 1]
fprr, tprr, thresholdsr = roc_curve(y_train_5, y_scores_dmy)
plot_roc_curve(fprr, tprr)
from sklearn.neighbors import KNeighborsClassifier
knn_clf = KNeighborsClassifier(weights='distance', n_neighbors=4)
knn_clf.fit(X_train, y_train)
y_knn_pred = knn_clf.predict(X_test)
from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score
accuracy_score(y_test, y_knn_pred)
from scipy.ndimage.interpolation import shift
def shift_digit(digit_array, dx, dy, new=0):
return shift(digit_array.reshape(28, 28), [dy, dx], cval=new).reshape(784)
plot_digit(shift_digit(some_digit, 5, 1, new=100))
X_train_expanded = [X_train]
y_train_expanded = [y_train]
for dx, dy in ((1, 0), (-1, 0), (0, 1), (0, -1)):
shifted_images = np.apply_along_axis(shift_digit, axis=1, arr=X_train, dx=dx, dy=dy)
X_train_expanded.append(shifted_images)
y_train_expanded.append(y_train)
X_train_expanded = np.concatenate(X_train_expanded)
y_train_expanded = np.concatenate(y_train_expanded)
X_train_expanded.shape, y_train_expanded.shape
knn_clf.fit(X_train_expanded, y_train_expanded)
y_knn_expanded_pred = knn_clf.predict(X_test)
accuracy_score(y_test, y_knn_expanded_pred)
ambiguous_digit = X_test[2589]
knn_clf.predict_proba([ambiguous_digit])
plot_digit(ambiguous_digit)
Warning: the next cell may take hours to run, depending on your hardware.
from sklearn.model_selection import GridSearchCV
param_grid = [{'weights': ["uniform", "distance"], 'n_neighbors': [3, 4, 5]}]
knn_clf = KNeighborsClassifier()
grid_search = GridSearchCV(knn_clf, param_grid, cv=5, verbose=3)
grid_search.fit(X_train, y_train)
grid_search.best_params_
grid_search.best_score_
from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score
y_pred = grid_search.predict(X_test)
accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred)
from scipy.ndimage.interpolation import shift
def shift_image(image, dx, dy):
image = image.reshape((28, 28))
shifted_image = shift(image, [dy, dx], cval=0, mode="constant")
return shifted_image.reshape([-1])
image = X_train[1000]
shifted_image_down = shift_image(image, 0, 5)
shifted_image_left = shift_image(image, -5, 0)
plt.figure(figsize=(12,3))
plt.subplot(131)
plt.title("Original", fontsize=14)
plt.imshow(image.reshape(28, 28), interpolation="nearest", cmap="Greys")
plt.subplot(132)
plt.title("Shifted down", fontsize=14)
plt.imshow(shifted_image_down.reshape(28, 28), interpolation="nearest", cmap="Greys")
plt.subplot(133)
plt.title("Shifted left", fontsize=14)
plt.imshow(shifted_image_left.reshape(28, 28), interpolation="nearest", cmap="Greys")
plt.show()
X_train_augmented = [image for image in X_train]
y_train_augmented = [label for label in y_train]
for dx, dy in ((1, 0), (-1, 0), (0, 1), (0, -1)):
for image, label in zip(X_train, y_train):
X_train_augmented.append(shift_image(image, dx, dy))
y_train_augmented.append(label)
X_train_augmented = np.array(X_train_augmented)
y_train_augmented = np.array(y_train_augmented)
shuffle_idx = np.random.permutation(len(X_train_augmented))
X_train_augmented = X_train_augmented[shuffle_idx]
y_train_augmented = y_train_augmented[shuffle_idx]
knn_clf = KNeighborsClassifier(**grid_search.best_params_)
knn_clf.fit(X_train_augmented, y_train_augmented)
y_pred = knn_clf.predict(X_test)
accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred)
By simply augmenting the data, we got a 0.5% accuracy boost. :)
The goal is to predict whether or not a passenger survived based on attributes such as their age, sex, passenger class, where they embarked and so on.
First, login to Kaggle and go to the Titanic challenge to download train.csv and test.csv. Save them to the datasets/titanic directory.
Next, let's load the data:
import os
TITANIC_PATH = os.path.join("datasets", "titanic")
import pandas as pd
def load_titanic_data(filename, titanic_path=TITANIC_PATH):
csv_path = os.path.join(titanic_path, filename)
return pd.read_csv(csv_path)
train_data = load_titanic_data("train.csv")
test_data = load_titanic_data("test.csv")
The data is already split into a training set and a test set. However, the test data does not contain the labels: your goal is to train the best model you can using the training data, then make your predictions on the test data and upload them to Kaggle to see your final score.
Let's take a peek at the top few rows of the training set:
train_data.head()
The attributes have the following meaning:
- Survived: that's the target, 0 means the passenger did not survive, while 1 means he/she survived.
- Pclass: passenger class.
- Name, Sex, Age: self-explanatory
- SibSp: how many siblings & spouses of the passenger aboard the Titanic.
- Parch: how many children & parents of the passenger aboard the Titanic.
- Ticket: ticket id
- Fare: price paid (in pounds)
- Cabin: passenger's cabin number
- Embarked: where the passenger embarked the Titanic
Let's get more info to see how much data is missing:
train_data.info()
Okay, the Age, Cabin and Embarked attributes are sometimes null (less than 891 non-null), especially the Cabin (77% are null). We will ignore the Cabin for now and focus on the rest. The Age attribute has about 19% null values, so we will need to decide what to do with them. Replacing null values with the median age seems reasonable.
The Name and Ticket attributes may have some value, but they will be a bit tricky to convert into useful numbers that a model can consume. So for now, we will ignore them.
Let's take a look at the numerical attributes:
train_data.describe()
- Yikes, only 38% Survived. :( That's close enough to 40%, so accuracy will be a reasonable metric to evaluate our model.
- The mean Fare was £32.20, which does not seem so expensive (but it was probably a lot of money back then).
- The mean Age was less than 30 years old.
Let's check that the target is indeed 0 or 1:
train_data["Survived"].value_counts()
Now let's take a quick look at all the categorical attributes:
train_data["Pclass"].value_counts()
train_data["Sex"].value_counts()
train_data["Embarked"].value_counts()
The Embarked attribute tells us where the passenger embarked: C=Cherbourg, Q=Queenstown, S=Southampton.
Note: the code below uses a mix of Pipeline, FeatureUnion and a custom DataFrameSelector to preprocess some columns differently. Since Scikit-Learn 0.20, it is preferable to use a ColumnTransformer, like in the previous chapter.
Now let's build our preprocessing pipelines. We will reuse the DataframeSelector we built in the previous chapter to select specific attributes from the DataFrame:
from sklearn.base import BaseEstimator, TransformerMixin
class DataFrameSelector(BaseEstimator, TransformerMixin):
def __init__(self, attribute_names):
self.attribute_names = attribute_names
def fit(self, X, y=None):
return self
def transform(self, X):
return X[self.attribute_names]
Let's build the pipeline for the numerical attributes:
from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline
from sklearn.impute import SimpleImputer
num_pipeline = Pipeline([
("select_numeric", DataFrameSelector(["Age", "SibSp", "Parch", "Fare"])),
("imputer", SimpleImputer(strategy="median")),
])
num_pipeline.fit_transform(train_data)
We will also need an imputer for the string categorical columns (the regular SimpleImputer does not work on those):
# Inspired from stackoverflow.com/questions/25239958
class MostFrequentImputer(BaseEstimator, TransformerMixin):
def fit(self, X, y=None):
self.most_frequent_ = pd.Series([X[c].value_counts().index[0] for c in X],
index=X.columns)
return self
def transform(self, X, y=None):
return X.fillna(self.most_frequent_)
from sklearn.preprocessing import OneHotEncoder
Now we can build the pipeline for the categorical attributes:
cat_pipeline = Pipeline([
("select_cat", DataFrameSelector(["Pclass", "Sex", "Embarked"])),
("imputer", MostFrequentImputer()),
("cat_encoder", OneHotEncoder(sparse=False)),
])
cat_pipeline.fit_transform(train_data)
Finally, let's join the numerical and categorical pipelines:
from sklearn.pipeline import FeatureUnion
preprocess_pipeline = FeatureUnion(transformer_list=[
("num_pipeline", num_pipeline),
("cat_pipeline", cat_pipeline),
])
Cool! Now we have a nice preprocessing pipeline that takes the raw data and outputs numerical input features that we can feed to any Machine Learning model we want.
X_train = preprocess_pipeline.fit_transform(train_data)
X_train
Let's not forget to get the labels:
y_train = train_data["Survived"]
We are now ready to train a classifier. Let's start with an SVC:
from sklearn.svm import SVC
svm_clf = SVC(gamma="auto")
svm_clf.fit(X_train, y_train)
Great, our model is trained, let's use it to make predictions on the test set:
X_test = preprocess_pipeline.transform(test_data)
y_pred = svm_clf.predict(X_test)
And now we could just build a CSV file with these predictions (respecting the format excepted by Kaggle), then upload it and hope for the best. But wait! We can do better than hope. Why don't we use cross-validation to have an idea of how good our model is?
from sklearn.model_selection import cross_val_score
svm_scores = cross_val_score(svm_clf, X_train, y_train, cv=10)
svm_scores.mean()
Okay, over 73% accuracy, clearly better than random chance, but it's not a great score. Looking at the leaderboard for the Titanic competition on Kaggle, you can see that you need to reach above 80% accuracy to be within the top 10% Kagglers. Some reached 100%, but since you can easily find the list of victims of the Titanic, it seems likely that there was little Machine Learning involved in their performance! ;-) So let's try to build a model that reaches 80% accuracy.
Let's try a RandomForestClassifier:
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier
forest_clf = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=100, random_state=42)
forest_scores = cross_val_score(forest_clf, X_train, y_train, cv=10)
forest_scores.mean()
That's much better!
Instead of just looking at the mean accuracy across the 10 cross-validation folds, let's plot all 10 scores for each model, along with a box plot highlighting the lower and upper quartiles, and "whiskers" showing the extent of the scores (thanks to Nevin Yilmaz for suggesting this visualization). Note that the boxplot() function detects outliers (called "fliers") and does not include them within the whiskers. Specifically, if the lower quartile is $Q_1$ and the upper quartile is $Q_3$, then the interquartile range $IQR = Q_3 - Q_1$ (this is the box's height), and any score lower than $Q_1 - 1.5 \times IQR$ is a flier, and so is any score greater than $Q3 + 1.5 \times IQR$.
plt.figure(figsize=(8, 4))
plt.plot([1]*10, svm_scores, ".")
plt.plot([2]*10, forest_scores, ".")
plt.boxplot([svm_scores, forest_scores], labels=("SVM","Random Forest"))
plt.ylabel("Accuracy", fontsize=14)
plt.show()
To improve this result further, you could:
- Compare many more models and tune hyperparameters using cross validation and grid search,
- Do more feature engineering, for example:
- replace SibSp and Parch with their sum,
- try to identify parts of names that correlate well with the Survived attribute (e.g. if the name contains "Countess", then survival seems more likely),
- try to convert numerical attributes to categorical attributes: for example, different age groups had very different survival rates (see below), so it may help to create an age bucket category and use it instead of the age. Similarly, it may be useful to have a special category for people traveling alone since only 30% of them survived (see below).
train_data["AgeBucket"] = train_data["Age"] // 15 * 15
train_data[["AgeBucket", "Survived"]].groupby(['AgeBucket']).mean()
train_data["RelativesOnboard"] = train_data["SibSp"] + train_data["Parch"]
train_data[["RelativesOnboard", "Survived"]].groupby(['RelativesOnboard']).mean()
First, let's fetch the data:
import os
import tarfile
import urllib
DOWNLOAD_ROOT = "http://spamassassin.apache.org/old/publiccorpus/"
HAM_URL = DOWNLOAD_ROOT + "20030228_easy_ham.tar.bz2"
SPAM_URL = DOWNLOAD_ROOT + "20030228_spam.tar.bz2"
SPAM_PATH = os.path.join("datasets", "spam")
def fetch_spam_data(spam_url=SPAM_URL, spam_path=SPAM_PATH):
if not os.path.isdir(spam_path):
os.makedirs(spam_path)
for filename, url in (("ham.tar.bz2", HAM_URL), ("spam.tar.bz2", SPAM_URL)):
path = os.path.join(spam_path, filename)
if not os.path.isfile(path):
urllib.request.urlretrieve(url, path)
tar_bz2_file = tarfile.open(path)
tar_bz2_file.extractall(path=SPAM_PATH)
tar_bz2_file.close()
fetch_spam_data()
Next, let's load all the emails:
HAM_DIR = os.path.join(SPAM_PATH, "easy_ham")
SPAM_DIR = os.path.join(SPAM_PATH, "spam")
ham_filenames = [name for name in sorted(os.listdir(HAM_DIR)) if len(name) > 20]
spam_filenames = [name for name in sorted(os.listdir(SPAM_DIR)) if len(name) > 20]
len(ham_filenames)
len(spam_filenames)
We can use Python's email module to parse these emails (this handles headers, encoding, and so on):
import email
import email.policy
def load_email(is_spam, filename, spam_path=SPAM_PATH):
directory = "spam" if is_spam else "easy_ham"
with open(os.path.join(spam_path, directory, filename), "rb") as f:
return email.parser.BytesParser(policy=email.policy.default).parse(f)
ham_emails = [load_email(is_spam=False, filename=name) for name in ham_filenames]
spam_emails = [load_email(is_spam=True, filename=name) for name in spam_filenames]
Let's look at one example of ham and one example of spam, to get a feel of what the data looks like:
print(ham_emails[1].get_content().strip())
print(spam_emails[6].get_content().strip())
Some emails are actually multipart, with images and attachments (which can have their own attachments). Let's look at the various types of structures we have:
def get_email_structure(email):
if isinstance(email, str):
return email
payload = email.get_payload()
if isinstance(payload, list):
return "multipart({})".format(", ".join([
get_email_structure(sub_email)
for sub_email in payload
]))
else:
return email.get_content_type()
from collections import Counter
def structures_counter(emails):
structures = Counter()
for email in emails:
structure = get_email_structure(email)
structures[structure] += 1
return structures
structures_counter(ham_emails).most_common()
structures_counter(spam_emails).most_common()
It seems that the ham emails are more often plain text, while spam has quite a lot of HTML. Moreover, quite a few ham emails are signed using PGP, while no spam is. In short, it seems that the email structure is useful information to have.
Now let's take a look at the email headers:
for header, value in spam_emails[0].items():
print(header,":",value)
There's probably a lot of useful information in there, such as the sender's email address (12a1mailbot1@web.de looks fishy), but we will just focus on the Subject header:
spam_emails[0]["Subject"]
Okay, before we learn too much about the data, let's not forget to split it into a training set and a test set:
import numpy as np
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
X = np.array(ham_emails + spam_emails)
y = np.array([0] * len(ham_emails) + [1] * len(spam_emails))
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42)
Okay, let's start writing the preprocessing functions. First, we will need a function to convert HTML to plain text. Arguably the best way to do this would be to use the great BeautifulSoup library, but I would like to avoid adding another dependency to this project, so let's hack a quick & dirty solution using regular expressions (at the risk of un̨ho͞ly radiańcé destro҉ying all enli̍̈́̂̈́ghtenment). The following function first drops the <head> section, then converts all <a> tags to the word HYPERLINK, then it gets rid of all HTML tags, leaving only the plain text. For readability, it also replaces multiple newlines with single newlines, and finally it unescapes html entities (such as > or ):
import re
from html import unescape
def html_to_plain_text(html):
text = re.sub('<head.*?>.*?</head>', '', html, flags=re.M | re.S | re.I)
text = re.sub('<a\s.*?>', ' HYPERLINK ', text, flags=re.M | re.S | re.I)
text = re.sub('<.*?>', '', text, flags=re.M | re.S)
text = re.sub(r'(\s*\n)+', '\n', text, flags=re.M | re.S)
return unescape(text)
Let's see if it works. This is HTML spam:
html_spam_emails = [email for email in X_train[y_train==1]
if get_email_structure(email) == "text/html"]
sample_html_spam = html_spam_emails[7]
print(sample_html_spam.get_content().strip()[:1000], "...")
And this is the resulting plain text:
print(html_to_plain_text(sample_html_spam.get_content())[:1000], "...")
Great! Now let's write a function that takes an email as input and returns its content as plain text, whatever its format is:
def email_to_text(email):
html = None
for part in email.walk():
ctype = part.get_content_type()
if not ctype in ("text/plain", "text/html"):
continue
try:
content = part.get_content()
except: # in case of encoding issues
content = str(part.get_payload())
if ctype == "text/plain":
return content
else:
html = content
if html:
return html_to_plain_text(html)
print(email_to_text(sample_html_spam)[:100], "...")
Let's throw in some stemming! For this to work, you need to install the Natural Language Toolkit (NLTK). It's as simple as running the following command (don't forget to activate your virtualenv first; if you don't have one, you will likely need administrator rights, or use the --user option):
$ pip3 install nltk
try:
import nltk
stemmer = nltk.PorterStemmer()
for word in ("Computations", "Computation", "Computing", "Computed", "Compute", "Compulsive"):
print(word, "=>", stemmer.stem(word))
except ImportError:
print("Error: stemming requires the NLTK module.")
stemmer = None
We will also need a way to replace URLs with the word "URL". For this, we could use hard core regular expressions but we will just use the urlextract library. You can install it with the following command (don't forget to activate your virtualenv first; if you don't have one, you will likely need administrator rights, or use the --user option):
$ pip3 install urlextract
# if running this notebook on Colab, we just pip install urlextract
try:
import google.colab
!pip install -q -U urlextract
except ImportError:
pass # not running on Colab
try:
import urlextract # may require an Internet connection to download root domain names
url_extractor = urlextract.URLExtract()
print(url_extractor.find_urls("Will it detect github.com and https://youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU?t=3m32s"))
except ImportError:
print("Error: replacing URLs requires the urlextract module.")
url_extractor = None
We are ready to put all this together into a transformer that we will use to convert emails to word counters. Note that we split sentences into words using Python's split() method, which uses whitespaces for word boundaries. This works for many written languages, but not all. For example, Chinese and Japanese scripts generally don't use spaces between words, and Vietnamese often uses spaces even between syllables. It's okay in this exercise, because the dataset is (mostly) in English.
from sklearn.base import BaseEstimator, TransformerMixin
class EmailToWordCounterTransformer(BaseEstimator, TransformerMixin):
def __init__(self, strip_headers=True, lower_case=True, remove_punctuation=True,
replace_urls=True, replace_numbers=True, stemming=True):
self.strip_headers = strip_headers
self.lower_case = lower_case
self.remove_punctuation = remove_punctuation
self.replace_urls = replace_urls
self.replace_numbers = replace_numbers
self.stemming = stemming
def fit(self, X, y=None):
return self
def transform(self, X, y=None):
X_transformed = []
for email in X:
text = email_to_text(email) or ""
if self.lower_case:
text = text.lower()
if self.replace_urls and url_extractor is not None:
urls = list(set(url_extractor.find_urls(text)))
urls.sort(key=lambda url: len(url), reverse=True)
for url in urls:
text = text.replace(url, " URL ")
if self.replace_numbers:
text = re.sub(r'\d+(?:\.\d*(?:[eE]\d+))?', 'NUMBER', text)
if self.remove_punctuation:
text = re.sub(r'\W+', ' ', text, flags=re.M)
word_counts = Counter(text.split())
if self.stemming and stemmer is not None:
stemmed_word_counts = Counter()
for word, count in word_counts.items():
stemmed_word = stemmer.stem(word)
stemmed_word_counts[stemmed_word] += count
word_counts = stemmed_word_counts
X_transformed.append(word_counts)
return np.array(X_transformed)
Let's try this transformer on a few emails:
X_few = X_train[:3]
X_few_wordcounts = EmailToWordCounterTransformer().fit_transform(X_few)
X_few_wordcounts
This looks about right!
Now we have the word counts, and we need to convert them to vectors. For this, we will build another transformer whose fit() method will build the vocabulary (an ordered list of the most common words) and whose transform() method will use the vocabulary to convert word counts to vectors. The output is a sparse matrix.
from scipy.sparse import csr_matrix
class WordCounterToVectorTransformer(BaseEstimator, TransformerMixin):
def __init__(self, vocabulary_size=1000):
self.vocabulary_size = vocabulary_size
def fit(self, X, y=None):
total_count = Counter()
for word_count in X:
for word, count in word_count.items():
total_count[word] += min(count, 10)
most_common = total_count.most_common()[:self.vocabulary_size]
self.most_common_ = most_common
self.vocabulary_ = {word: index + 1 for index, (word, count) in enumerate(most_common)}
return self
def transform(self, X, y=None):
rows = []
cols = []
data = []
for row, word_count in enumerate(X):
for word, count in word_count.items():
rows.append(row)
cols.append(self.vocabulary_.get(word, 0))
data.append(count)
return csr_matrix((data, (rows, cols)), shape=(len(X), self.vocabulary_size + 1))
vocab_transformer = WordCounterToVectorTransformer(vocabulary_size=10)
X_few_vectors = vocab_transformer.fit_transform(X_few_wordcounts)
X_few_vectors
X_few_vectors.toarray()
What does this matrix mean? Well, the 99 in the second row, first column, means that the second email contains 99 words that are not part of the vocabulary. The 11 next to it means that the first word in the vocabulary is present 11 times in this email. The 9 next to it means that the second word is present 9 times, and so on. You can look at the vocabulary to know which words we are talking about. The first word is "the", the second word is "of", etc.
vocab_transformer.vocabulary_
We are now ready to train our first spam classifier! Let's transform the whole dataset:
from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline
preprocess_pipeline = Pipeline([
("email_to_wordcount", EmailToWordCounterTransformer()),
("wordcount_to_vector", WordCounterToVectorTransformer()),
])
X_train_transformed = preprocess_pipeline.fit_transform(X_train)
Note: to be future-proof, we set solver="lbfgs" since this will be the default value in Scikit-Learn 0.22.
from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression
from sklearn.model_selection import cross_val_score
log_clf = LogisticRegression(solver="lbfgs", random_state=42)
score = cross_val_score(log_clf, X_train_transformed, y_train, cv=3, verbose=3)
score.mean()
Over 98.7%, not bad for a first try! :) However, remember that we are using the "easy" dataset. You can try with the harder datasets, the results won't be so amazing. You would have to try multiple models, select the best ones and fine-tune them using cross-validation, and so on.
But you get the picture, so let's stop now, and just print out the precision/recall we get on the test set:
from sklearn.metrics import precision_score, recall_score
X_test_transformed = preprocess_pipeline.transform(X_test)
log_clf = LogisticRegression(solver="lbfgs", random_state=42)
log_clf.fit(X_train_transformed, y_train)
y_pred = log_clf.predict(X_test_transformed)
print("Precision: {:.2f}%".format(100 * precision_score(y_test, y_pred)))
print("Recall: {:.2f}%".format(100 * recall_score(y_test, y_pred)))